What is our current global heating heading on business as usual economic growth? 
                                                                  It's  5.5oC to 7.1oC
 
                                    The race to fossil fuel oblivion  
          Global  Climate  Catastrophe
Above is the latest estimate of our current heading on business as usual fossi fuel economic growth.
It is by the UK Hadley Climate Center.
 
It projects a 132% increase in GHGas emissions by 2050 and a 5.5 to 7.1 oC global warming by 2100.
 
This how ever does not include catastrophic effects of Arctic Ocean melt down, Permafrost or methane hydrate carbon feedbacks.
              The world is headed for UNSURVIVABLE GLOBAL WARMING ! 
                                                                            Does any one Care? 
 The global business as usual fossil fuel economy has the world on course for  certain global climate change catastrophe.
 
                              The Role of the Fossil Fuel Corporations
                   
               What is the global warming survival limit for humanity?  +7.0oC
                   
There is only one published paper on this question which was presented at the March 09 Copenhagen climate congress.
The conclusion was a global average temperature of 7oC.
 
But this not take into account the fact that the global warmng will last at least a thousand years,
in which case the survival of humanity will be more like 5.0C as some other scientists have stated but not published. 
 
 
 
 
 
      UNSURVIVABLE LEVELS OF GLOBAL WARMING 
Global Carbon Project 2008
Global Fossil Fuel CO2
            Global Warming Climate Change & Sea Level Rise for 1000 Years
        The Increased global temperature, changes to the climate and sea level rise
     from burning fossil fuels will last, without let up, for over a thousand years.
 
This is critical to protecting future populaltions from catastrophic damage to agriculture and carbon feedbacks including methane hydrates. Any global warming/climate change  impact  will be cumulative over 1000 years and all risks of all impacts will increase (more likely to happen) over centuries.
 
The scientific community does not make a distiction between catastrophic and dangerous global climate change. And their position is that they cannot be defined.
 
The Inergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not make any mention pf catastrophic or dangerous climate change in its last asessment (2007) and all parties to the 1992 UN Convention on Climate Change assume that today's GHGas levels are not dangerous.
                      The IPCC gives the following five 'Reasons For Concern' .
o Risks to unique and threatened eco-systems.  
o Risks of extreme weather events: “ projected increases in droughts, heatwaves, and floods as well as their adverse impacts”
o Distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities:  “there are sharp differences across regions and those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change”.  "greater vulnerability of specific groups such as the poor and elderly in developing and developed countries". o Aggregate impacts:  net market-based benefits or losses from projected climate change  
o Risks of large-scale singularities  “there is high confidence that global warming over many centuries would lead to a sea level rise. This is only one listed by the IPCC.
 
The IPCC said that Climate change is 'likely to lead to some irreversible impacts' and' 'could lead to some impacts that are abrupt', citing  only sea level rise (over millennia), Ocean current changes, and extinction of species
 
All the most catastrophic risks are omitted by the IPCC.
 
The IPCC does not advise the level or time frame for emissions reductions. 
                                                       
 
                                   The Science of Catastrophic  Denial
                   
Arctic Meltdown
 
The meltdown of the Arctic summer Ocean will add a lot more GHGas to the atmosphere as the permafrost thaw accelerates.
 
Today scientists agree that their computer models are wrong
and the summer Arctic ice is in accelerated melt down.
 
This will result in the further accleration of the warming of the Arctic region, of the entire Northern hemisphere and of the planet,  
                                                           What about AGRICULTURE?
Like all of the climate change the risks to agriculture are assessed by models.
And like all the risks the models cannot model all the factors.
No where is the data so lacking as in the case of agriculture.
The omitted factors are as follows:
 
Climate variation
Extreme weather events
Increase and changed weeds
Increased and change pests. 
Resistance to current pesticides
Changes to soil fertility.
Damage to plants from increased ground level ozone.
Additive/synergistic combination impacts.
 
IPCC projections
 
Even without these factors the IPCC says that most climate vulerable regional agriculture will be damaged above and in even below a global warming of 1oC.
 
Agriculture in all regions is vulnerable above 2oC.
 
This means the entire world faces a food supply catastrophe.
                    The Deadly Denial of Catastrophe
 
 Global climate catastrophe is inevitable -  if its almost universal denial continues.  
 
World powers and leaders do not acknowledge the extent of today's risks and the latest research evidence on climate catastrophe is not included in current UN negotiations
 
There is no national or international agreement or policy for zero risk (zero tolerance) to catastrophic climate change.  
 
 o There is no formal acknowledgment on what levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases are dangerous or catastrophic.
 o Climate change scientists say these are value judgements that cannot be defined.
 o All parties are accepting a target of 2oC even though this is disastrous and potentially catastrophic by the science.
 o No parties are acknowledging that only zero CO2 emissions can stop global waming (definite by the GHGas science).
 o The policy of all parties is to delay the elimination of most GHGas emissions till 2050.
 o There is no large global investment program into building a world wide renewable energy economy.
 o There is no international agreement to add the costs of fossil fuel pollutions to fossil energy sales.
 o The is no international policy to ban fossil fuel subsidies ($300 billion world wide).
 o The current UN climate convention negotiations are based solely on the the IPCC 2007 assessment of the science (up to Jan 2006) which omits all the very worst  scientific reports of impending catastrophe.
Global Carbon Project 2008
The two graphs say it all.
The world is on a  fixed clourse for catastrophe.
 
The global carbon project is the recognized international source of carbon budget records.
 
The projection after 2010 is taken from the US Dept of Energy.
The world is on track for a 2.0oC global warming before 2050 even excluding feed backs.